State of the Union: 2010

The occasions in which I feel compelled to blog are rare, but I felt that some commentary on Wednesday's State of the Union address and the nation as a whole would help organize and present my thoughts on the different policy aims of the Obama administration. As with all previous blog entries, I will attempt to be as objective as possible in my analysis, yet keeping in mind that I am shaped by my own experience and values.

American Politics in 2009: My Summary
(Disclaimer: skip past this section to the next bold heading if you want to read about the State of the Union address itself)

President Barack Obama approached the State of the Union with little wind left in his sails of political capital from a hard several months of political setbacks. President Obama began his term with an energizing 69% approval rating from voters, and only a 13% disapproval rating. Over the course of one year, that comparison fell to 48% approval and 45% disapproval, as tracked by Gallup. Why did this happen?

The president pushed a broad agenda that on many fronts failed to produce the hoped-for dividends. I'll start domestically and move internationally.

1. Healthcare: The largest issue in the public mind for 2009 was the progress of health insurance reform in Congress in which the President fully invested himself. Numerous conservative criticisms drove an increasing public cynicism about the ability of a reform bill to successfully translate to an effective policy. In that already daunting task, Democrats worked to iron out their differences, especially between fiscal liberals and the cluster of Blue Dogs that expressed consistent concern over reform. The House and the Senate passed separate bills that had to be reconciled, leading to debate over funding for abortion and the creation of a public insurer. Furthermore, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy's leadership on the issue was lost even in spirit shortly after his passing in August.

To reasons largely unexplained by the mainstream media and accepted almost by default, Republicans forced Congressional Democrats to operate with a 60-vote supermajority for passing healthcare legislation. Despite the switch by Sen. Arlen Specter to the Democratic caucus and the courting of moderate Republican Senators such as Olympia Snowe, the public impetus to reform healthcare slowly withered in a combination of Democratic disagreement and Republican obstructionism. Scott Brown's election sealed the fate of healthcare reform decided on solely the Democrat's terms.

President Obama invested much of his campaign and presidency in this issue, and consequently came away from stalled healthcare legislation with little to show the nation.

2. Economy: Few issues captivated the nation like healthcare reform in 2009, but the administration's continuing influence in economic matters maintained attention. In a real sense, the oft-debated and little-understood "bailout" programs worked almost precisely as they were intended to work. Major banks began to pay back Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) money as early as June. The leadership of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was instrumental in the continuing recovery. These men deserve great credit (not just for the way they handled credit) but for their professionalism in the face of undeserved popular outrage.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was painfully inefficient, but nonetheless had a positive effect on education, energy policy, and public works. Even as the government propped up services, housing and investment, unemployment hovered over 10%. The lack of jobs and indebtedness, according to the Economist, could remain a long-term problem. New jobs could come in energy legislation, but the difficulty of passing a "climate bill" with a cap-and-trade program to limit emissions remains. The Economist recommends a carbon tax, but the very word "tax increase" is an anathema to many Americans.

3. Spending and Backlash: All of these domestic policies collectively created an immense federal deficit for 2009, adding to an already large government debt burden. By percent of GDP, (see graph here) the administration created a deficit in 2009 that was almost four times the level of any one year in the Bush administration. Projections for 2010 are still very high. Bias aside, the government spent at an unprecedented level in 2009, and must handle the problem soon. The radical-turned-mainstream fiscal conservative Tea Party movement took the streets demanding a reduction in government spending. (Despite one protester's illogical demand that the government should not be involved in her Medicare, the movement still has credibility in the eyes of Republicans looking to return to fiscal conservative roots that will carry them to long-term electoral success.) While fractious, the Tea Party uprising of 2009 underlines a broader concern for the administration with spending and debt.

4. Republican Resurgence: Not much is to be said for the state of partisan politics in 2009 despite the great media attention it received. Logically, the party in power with the burden of lawmaking in a time of duress will quickly lose support and yield to the opposition party. For this reason, it is safe to assume Democrats will sustain significant losses in 2010, and Republicans will make up ground as they did in Massachusetts and other states that may historically be bastions of Democratic leadership. However, legislative obstructionism will no longer work once the party regains at least some of the legislative influence it enjoyed from 1994-2006. Also, watch for the role of the campaign finance decision in the Supreme Court in the 2010 elections.

5. Law and Liberty: With campaign promises that appealed to minority rights and gay rights groups, the administration has not fulfilled many of these burdens. However, Attorney General Eric Holder oversaw gains important to the administration in the form of hate crime legislation. The president also worked to phase out prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, but still faced many challenges in the prosecution of terrorism. New cybersecurity initiatives should also help enforce the rule of law domestically.

6. Foreign Policy: The Obama administration approached foreign policy with possibly the most idealism of any part of its agenda.

The president made a wise decision on Afghanistan, and despite electoral fraud and a spat with the UN, support from NATO is growing and objectives are being set. If the Karzai government works effectively (that's a big if) and the war of information against the Taliban succeeds, the other pieces are in place for real success in Central Asia. Pakistan's cooperation is also essential. (see previous entry on Afghanistan)

Other foreign policies were hit and miss, as an arms reduction treaty with Russia was signed, but preventing Iran from pursuing a nuclear program proved incredibly difficult. The web of the Iranian government, its people, the U.S.-Israel alliance, and the stances of Russia and China proved very sticky. On Israel and Palestine, meaningful progress was not made, and Washington failed to achieve its goals in the Honduran election. China and Japan both raised their hackles toward the United States at different points in the year, and a binding international climate change plan of action accord was not reached at Copenhagen.

On the whole, the administration still managed to mend many of the wounds in the international perception of the United States left from the aggressive foreign policy of the Bush administration. Relief efforts in Haiti help the country's international image. Still, the jury is out on the potential success of the administration's lofty foreign policy goals.
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With the confluence of these factors, it is no surprise that the president's approval ratings dipped to 48% by the time he took the podium on January 27th, 2010, 372 days after taking office.


The Address
President Obama formatted his State of the Union around five key points: Economy and Investment, Healthcare Reform, Government Spending and Operation, Security and Foreign Policy, and Civil Liberties. I'll rate my view of each section based on how I feel the policy proposals meet the challenges faced by the United States in 2010.

1. Economy and Investment: The focus on job creation in this section was essential to the administration's 2010 agenda. The President demonstrated an affinity for small business interests, proposing initiatives such as lending to community banks and selectively eliminating the capital gains tax. The calls for spending on education, jobs, and the taxation of banks will rile Republicans, but the GOP should appreciate the president's call for nuclear power and expanded offshore drilling. The bipartisan emphasis and empathetical style showed in this part of the address were needed. Data on the effect of the stimulus is sketchy, so some overstatement may have occurred.

Grade: A-

2. Healthcare Reform: For reasons stipulated earlier, this is an issue that is losing ground and priority for the administration as a result of political reality. The President only brushed over the issue, but made claims about saving money and bipartisanship that will do little to positively affect public opinion on the issue. A feel-good statement about Michelle Obama's work against child obesity means little in the larger context of holistic reform, and was indicative of the President's desire to shift focus away from the healthcare issue for easier items on the agenda. Smart, but unhelpful for actual progress.

Grade: D

3. Government Spending and Operation: Here the President unfurled the game he needed to stop playing by the end of his 100-day mark: criticism of the Bush administration. While some observations are true about the debt the Bush administration incurred, the move smells of a political reach to shift blame. The proposed spending freeze in 2011 will only be a short-term solution to government debt, but his work to end some tax cuts and persuade Congress to reinstate pay-as-you-go policies for the budget while cooperating with a commission on debt reduction has more long term potential.

Lobbying reform will probably not happen, despite the President's overtures. The condemnation of the Supreme Court's recent campaign finance decision and subsequent call to Congressional action seemed to overstep Constitutional separation of powers, despite legitimate concerns over the decision's implications. Tackling tough issues in this section, President Obama spoke about working actively to reduce debt and control corruption. Chances for success look to be below average, but the issue was well-addressed.

Grade: B

4. Security and Foreign Policy: As with healthcare, President Obama made few suggestions and mainly resorted to a synopsis of events and policies in this section. As said above, the jury is still out on foreign policy. Can the outlined goals be achieved in Afghanistan by 2011? What will happen with a climate change accord? Calls for some protectionism may or may not have teeth, but they are always appealing to the public ear.

Grade: B

5. Civil Liberties: Speaking briefly and to particular segments of the electorate, the President addressed minority rights, women's rights, and gay rights, thus essentially renewing promises from his campaign and celebrating the passage of hate crime legislation. While small, this section, combined with the success of the Sotomayor nomination providing a positive overtone, is a positive amidst the difficult challenges tackled in other parts of the address.

Grade: A

Overall, the 2010 State of the Union address utilized the theme of optimism despite the temptation to feel otherwise. With a restive citizenry and the opposition closing in quickly, President Obama elicited a share of positive responses from both sides of the House chamber during the speech. The reaction was mixed, but had significant bright spots. Policy goals are laid out, healthcare is tabled, and the stage is set for 2010 in the United States.

With charisma, eloquence, and a characteristic knack for illustrative anecdotes, President Obama placed himself at the crossroads of words and action in this speech. The midterm elections in November 2010 will be a key indicator of which path our government treads.