Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Russia: Throwing Elbows and Holding Together

Having considered domestic issues for most of the blog so far, it is time to approach an issue in international relations. The politics of post-Cold War Europe are far more complex than my current knowledge can grasp, with the relationship of NATO, the EU, the neo-Warsaw Pact CIS, and aspiring member-states of all three groups. With these complexities and difficulties in mind, here is an assessment of Russia, examining its current state of affairs domestically and in foreign relations, with a specific emphasis on actions in its geographic sphere of influence.

Russian Society Unmasked
Russia emerged from the Cold War as the chief former member of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, bringing a 20th-century record of revolution, authoritarianism, secrecy, and decay with it. On the whole, Americans perceived everything behind the Iron Curtain as a sort of massive "Soviet bloc" that acceded to the will of the Kremlin. During the Cold War, Russia created a monolithic image in the Western consciousness, representing the ideological conflict between traditional socioeconomic liberalism and centralized, authoritarian rule.

However, the perception of Russia as a unified force fell apart quickly with the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. New states sprang (or slogged) into existence in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Today, Russia is commonly understood as a unified force, now that its many former appendages are independent. However, Russia contains a diverse range of ethnic groups, many of whom would never identify as Russian, like in Dagestan. Dagestan characterizes the diverse ethnic background of Russian citizens, and the complex steps Moscow must take to hold the country together. Dagestani elections are a subject of tension with the central government. Historic violence Chechnya arises from similar circumstances.

Furthermore, the Russian government also must deal with native Siberian populations and immigrant labor from Central Asia. It is also easy to forget about Kaliningrad, the country's Baltic Sea enclave with a set of problems that the Kremlin must deal with independently of the far different Russian interior.

From Oil to Medals: Russian Politics and Economics
Maintaining stability in such a large and diverse range of populations seems to naturally beget authoritarian governance in a state with an already large heritage of such approaches. The biggest institutions are oil companies, like the behemoth state-run Gazprom (more on oil later) and former Soviet agencies still suspected of covert operations throughout Russia. With business and military interests playing such a large role in government, and a shadowy political figure like Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, human rights issues are inevitable. Sustainability is an area of concern for individuals like Putin who govern with an iron fist, but the former president anointed a close ally, Dmitry Medvedev, for the new president in 2008.

Local leaders, such as the mayor of Moscow, also create problems for residents and display strong-handed governing tendencies. Josef Stalin is ideologically trendy, too.

Authoritarianism has its limits, as victims of an aggressive state or state-sponsored groups can make their case heard to the world. Conflicts over opposition media and the killings of journalists critical of the Kremlin drew international ire. Political parties opposing the omnipresent United Russia party also have gained traction. Even the supposedly submissive establishment ally President Medvedev stepped up against Putin loyalists, though the true nature of his relationship with the Prime Minister remains clouded.

Economically, Russia suffered greatly from the decline in demand for its rich oil and natural gas reserves, and rebounded far more slowly than its BRIC counterparts, Brazil, India and China. The CIA World Factbook considers Russia's long-term economic problems to be "a shrinking workforce, a high level of corruption, and poor infrastructure." These problems are rampant, and affect even the heavyweights of Russian business, like Gazprom. Furthermore, the Russian ruble is in the ignominious company of financially troubled states like Argentina for its decline against the dollar in the past year.

Even with one of the world's ten largest economies, Russia will struggle to remain competitive and politically cohesive on a domestic front in years to come. An indicator of this declining strength within Russia is its poor showing in the Vancouver Winter Olympics, and the resulting fallout between the country's Olympic Committee and the government. If Russia cannot win the medals, what has it been doing globally to carve out its self-interested sphere of influence in the midst of decay and potential instability at home?

The Bear's Old Hunting Grounds
(In Russian foreign policy, the two separate areas of geopolitics and international cooperation will be assessed)

The end of the Cold War did not spell the end of the Kremlin's influence in the affairs of now-former members of the USSR. Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, while different in heritage, share a common political thread in the issue of Russian influence. This influence is apparent through the leverage exercised through both soft power incentives and hard power enforcement of interest, or "carrot and stick."

In the Caucasus, Russia received international attention for its short 2008 war against Georgia, a small state with a pro-Western, pro-NATO government. (Tblisi has a street named after George W. Bush - it is hard to be more pro-Western than that!) While an EU report absolved Russia of the immediate blame for starting the war, Russia was still accused of pushing Georgia into taking action to preserve its territorial integrity in the strategically important regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia continues its bullying of Georgia, rooted in a desire to compete with NATO and assert its historical opposition to the organization combined with a subtler hint of irredentism.

Most Russian geopolitical influence comes not from the "stick" of military action, but from soft power. In the old, traditional Iron Curtain states of Easter Europe, many ethnic loyalties still tilt in the Slavic direction, especially in the Eastern reaches of states like Ukraine and Belarus. The Eastern Ukranian Viktor Yanukovich defeated the Western-oriented Yulia Tymoshenko in a recent election. Promises for closer Ukrainian-Russian relations to repair the damage from the Orange Revolution followed. When ethnic loyalty cannot be relied on, Russia uses incentives in a more forceful way with the shutoff of gas lines to Eastern and parts of Western Europe. Taking away heating oil from millions of Europeans in the depths of winter is a huge bargaining chip.

Not only does Russia seek favorable environments within its old stomping grounds, it also seeks to regulate foreign involvement in these states, much as the Monroe Doctrine-backed United States influenced the Caribbean in the late 19th and early 20th century. The American plan for a missile defense system in Poland revealed in 2009 roused great suspicion from Moscow, despite modifications to demonstrate a focus on Iran as a target.

Finally, the exercise of geopolitical power in Russia extends to the Arctic Ocean and to Central Asia. Though in Central Asia, Russia has witnessed the rise of China as a competitor. This consideration leads to the question: what role does Russia play in its modern interactions with other states on a multilateral basis?

Uneasy Partnership
Briefly answered, the Russian interaction with the international community has been generally cooperative and productive as of late. Effective multilateralism must be exercised by a state with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

With powerful Western European states, relations with Russia seem to be warming, as seen in a recent arms deal with France. Despite objections from the United States to such deals, a desire for a Europe not defined solely by the EU is emerging. Russia still maintains a productive nuclear policy, working with the United States for a new treaty to replace the expiring START from 1991.

On issues that mandate full multilateral cooperation, Russia has demonstrated a willingness to work with the United States and other global powers in the interest of collective security and sustainability. Despite early objections, Russia is in favor of sanctions on Iran's nascent full nuclear enrichment program. Russia participated in (eventually frustrated) efforts to defuse the situation in the early months of 2010 through a "nuclear swap" proposal. At the Copenhagen summit on climate change, Russia promised emissions reductions if reciprocity could be had from the United States and China. That is no small goal from the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Don't Exile Your Big Hopes to Siberia
Russia must be, in most ways, taken as it is by international powers. It cannot be pressured sufficiently as a member of the Security Council to change its fundamental political culture. An emboldened opposition and restive citizens in a declining economy may yet break the political mentality and corruption carried over from Soviet days.

Thus, the United States should tread carefully, appreciating Russia's contributions to multilateralism, while still placing measured criticism and international pressure on Russia's regional power grabs. Over time, engagement and cooperation with Europe may lead to greater democratization and a strong future for the world's most expansive state.

Down the road, perhaps United Russia will not be the name for a political party, but a movement of change, patriotism and honesty among citizens and government. What is Russia? The famous gulag survivor and author Alexander Solzhenitsyn said it well, and Russian people would likewise do well to spread it among themselves:

"Patriotism means unqualified and unwavering love for the nation, which implies not uncritical eagerness to serve, not support for unjust claims, but frank assessment of its vices and sins, and penitence for them."